Fans of Spanish football are already counting down to 16.15 on Sunday. At that time, the one and only city derby of Madrid begins. This time Atlético enters the game as the number 1 of the competition. An excellent starting position, but Diego Simeone’s team has lost some points in recent weeks. In the derby with city rivals Real, Atlético cannot afford to lose. Real is only five points behind Atlético, although De Koninklijke has played one more match. The Madrid derby can ensure that Atlético is more comfortable in that lead-position or that La Liga can enter an extra exciting last part of the competition. Reason enough to bet on the Derbi Madrileño this weekend.
It is that eternal battle for the lead
With two absolute top clubs within the city limits, Madrid can call itself Spain’s football city. Atlético and Real, together with FC Barcelona, have been in the top 3 competitions for years. Yet it has been a while since Atlético Madrid finished at the top, and Los Rojiblancos could celebrate the national title. Since that glorious 2013/14 season, the team has to settle for second and third places. The supporters now have only one wish: Atlético must become champion again. With 58 points from 24 games, the Madrid people are well on their way to making that wish come true. But yes, the competition is close …
Real Madrid closed the previous season with the 34th title. The Royal hopes for a prolongation, although this requires a small final sprint. After 25 duels played, there are 53 points on the board, and with that, Real is in third place, just behind FC Barcelona. Last Monday’s draw ended the streak of four wins in a row. Despite the expensive loss of points against sub-topper Real Sociedad, Zinedine Zidane and his men have shown that it is not much wrong with the form. There are some problems with Real Madrid’s selection, and those problems are mainly due to the many injuries. Eden Hazard, Karim Benzema and Sergio Ramos, among others, are still not available. With this, Zidane misses some of his strongest essential players when Real enters Wanda Metropolitano’s field on Sunday.
This is what the statistics tell us about the Madrid derby
Real and Atlético Madrid last met last December. In the Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano (Bernabéu is currently being renovated), De Koninklijke took the victory 2-0. That victory was certainly not the first. Of the 188 confrontations since 1928/29, Real won 100. In 42 games, a draw appeared on the scoreboard. You do not have to be a vast math miracle to know that Atlético Madrid has done significantly less well in the mutual duels than Real. The club managed to win the city derby only 46 times, which amounts to 24% of the total. In the last 9 times that the teams met in the competition, there was no single victory for Atlético.
Although the statistics should give Real confidence, Atlético Madrid is, of course, the current number one in the league for a reason. The club managed to achieve several great victories this season, including a 2-0 win over Sevilla and a 1-0 win over FC Barcelona. But Atlético has started to falter lately. The 2-2 draw in the home game against Celta heralded a series with some disappointing results. Since this game on February 8, Los Rojiblancos has dropped several points, bringing the competition closer. Last Sunday’s 2-0 victory at Villareal was an absolute boost for Simeone’s team. Real Madrid enters the derby with a 1-1 draw behind them. Now let’s wait and see what will happen in Wanda Metropolitana on Sunday.
Bet on the Derbi Madrileño
Real Madrid wants nothing more than to further increase the pressure on the number one in the competition. A victory is desperately needed for this, but the selection is therefore somewhat damaged. With Thibaut Courtois, De Koninklijke has, of course, a strong goalkeeper on the field. This will undoubtedly make it difficult for Atlético Madrid to score. Real also really has to work to get those three points. Whether that will work? The bookmakers are not sure about this yet. The odds show that nothing is confident in the Derbi Madrileño. For example, Atlético Madrid’s win is worth about 2.75 times the stake and about 2.70 for Real Madrid. Such minimal difference. A draw cannot be ruled out. With two teams that are very well matched, those 90 minutes of football can easily result in a 1-1. In any case, do not expect a goal feast. Both teams will do everything they can to obstruct the opponent so that with “under 2.5 goals”, you have a realistic and perhaps even profitable prediction on your form.